Are paychecks keeping up with prices?
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Household statement
Latest releasesIncome and savings
Hourly pay is one slice. Household income shows the bigger picture, and the saving rate shows how much is left after the bills. The income and pay charts here are adjusted for inflation.
Median household income
Half of households earn more, half earn less. Adjusted for inflation. Census Bureau, yearly.
Personal saving rate
Share of after-tax income households set aside instead of spending.
Typical full-time weekly pay
Median weekly earnings of full-time workers, quarterly. BLS reports it in 1982–84 dollars; shown here in today's dollars.
After-tax income per person
Disposable personal income divided by the population, at a yearly rate, in 2017 dollars.
What's costing more
Overall inflation is an average of hundreds of prices. The bills inside it can move much faster or slower, and a few fall.
Past 12 months, bill by bill
Change in consumer prices from a year earlier. The dashed line marks all prices.
Price changes by category
Change from a year earlier in all consumer prices, food bought at grocery stores, and rent.
At the grocery store
Average prices that government surveyors record in stores across the country each month. Your store will differ, but the direction is usually the same.
Groceries vs eating out
Change from a year earlier in prices of food bought at grocery stores and of meals and snacks at restaurants.
Eggs, a dozen
US average price of a dozen grade A large eggs, monthly. The most volatile item on the receipt.
Household bills
Power and heat, doctors, and school or daycare. These are hard to cut back on when prices rise.
Electricity, per kilowatt-hour
US city average price of a kilowatt-hour of household electricity, monthly.
Home energy
Change from a year earlier in prices of household electricity and of gas piped to the home.
Health care, school and childcare
Change from a year earlier in medical care prices, and in one combined index of college and school tuition, school fees and childcare.
Getting around
Car prices, the rate on a car loan, and fuel. Diesel moves trucks and farm machinery, so it feeds into store prices too.
Car prices
Change from a year earlier in prices of new vehicles and of used cars and trucks.
New-car loan rate
Average rate on 48-month new-car loans at commercial banks, surveyed every three months.
Gas and diesel prices
US average price of a gallon of regular gasoline and of diesel, weekly.
Jobs
The official rate counts people actively looking for work. The broader U-6 rate adds people who gave up looking and part-timers who want full-time hours.
Openings and quits show how much bargaining power workers have. When few people quit, they usually doubt they could find something better.
Unemployment
Share of the labor force without a job, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
Job openings
Positions employers were trying to fill on the last day of the month.
Quits rate
Share of workers who quit their job during the month.
Employed, ages 25 to 54
Share of people in their prime working years who have a job. Unlike the overall rate, retirements do not pull it down.
The minimum wage
The federal floor for hourly pay. Many states and cities set their own, higher minimums.
Federal minimum wage, as paid and in today's dollars
The hourly minimum as written into law, and what it would be worth at today's prices using the consumer price index. Always shows since 2000.
Recession watch
Eight early-warning signs, each checked against a rule-of-thumb level that has come before past recessions. They are warning lights, not forecasts.
| Signal | Reading | As of | Warning level | Status |
|---|
Sahm Rule
Rise in the 3-month average unemployment rate above its low of the past year, in percentage points.
Yield curve
10-year Treasury rate minus the 3-month rate, monthly average. Below zero means inverted.
Jobless claims
New unemployment insurance claims per week, 4-week average.
Monthly job gains
Change in payroll jobs, averaged over the latest 3 months.
Temp help jobs
Employers usually cut temporary workers before permanent staff.
Building permits
New homes authorized, at a yearly rate. Housing tends to turn down early.
Financial conditions
Chicago Fed index of stress in lending and markets. Above zero is tighter than average.
Recession probability
Model estimate of the chance the US is already in a recession.
Buying or renting a home
The monthly payment depends on both the price and the mortgage rate, so it is the truest measure of whether a home is within reach.
For renters, empty apartments are leverage. A higher vacancy rate means more room to bargain on rent.
Monthly payment on a typical new home
Principal and interest on the median-priced new house, with 20% down and a 30-year fixed loan at that quarter's average rate. Property taxes and insurance not included.
30-year mortgage rate
Average 30-year fixed rate from Freddie Mac's weekly survey of lenders.
Median new-home price
Median sale price of newly built houses sold in the US, quarterly.
House prices
Change from a year earlier in prices of the same houses when they sell again. FHFA, monthly.
Homeownership rate
Share of households that own the home they live in, quarterly.
Rental vacancy rate
Share of rental homes that are empty and up for rent, quarterly.
Debt
How much of each paycheck goes to debt, and how many people are falling behind. Card interest compounds fast, and a rising share of late balances is often the first sign that household budgets are stretched.
Income that goes to debt payments
Required payments on mortgages and consumer loans as a share of after-tax income, for all households, quarterly.
Credit card interest rate
Average yearly rate on card accounts that were charged interest, at commercial banks.
Credit card and other revolving debt
Total owed on cards and other revolving credit lines, in trillions of dollars, not adjusted for inflation.
Loans paid late
Share of balances 30 or more days past due at commercial banks, quarterly. Consumer loans include cards, car loans and other personal loans.
Mood and fair share
Sentiment tracks how people judge their own finances. The wealth share shows how much of the country's household wealth belongs to the bottom half.
Consumer sentiment
University of Michigan survey of how people feel about their finances and the economy. Early 1966 = 100.
Wealth held by the bottom 50%
Share of all US household net worth owned by the less-wealthy half of households.